The Yankees went back to the partial “master plan” for the second night in a row and it worked again! Domingo German with a good 5-inning start, and then the vaunted ballpen came in for 4 shutout innings. And the Yankees mustered “just enough offense” for the 4-3 win (the part of the plan that is partial as the Yanks await Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Didi Gregorius to form the heart of a bazooka lineup.)
It was a duel of 1st place Tampa vs 2nd place NY — the Yanks 1.5 games back of Tampa — in the dome in Tampa where the Yanks have a hard time winning. And it was a game that had Yankee fans biting their nails for the duration. With the win, the Yanks are now 23-15; the Rays are 23-14.
Matchup of MLB’s Two Top Winning Pitchers
It was also a matchup of the Major League’s two win leaders — Domingo German came in 6-1; Tyler Glasnow at 6-0. The Yanks jumped on Glasnow in the 1st — loading the bases with nobody out. But he struck out Clint Frazier and you started to fear the Yanks might not score.
How Many Runs Should the Yankees Have Scored?
Some fans on Twitter wished the Yanks had gotten more than the 2 runs that inning off Glasnow after they had bases loaded, nobody out. It gets one to thinking — how many runs should a team score with bases loaded nobody 0ut?
- If you get a leadoff triple, what’s the odds on that run scoring? 90%? So you can expect .9 runs.
- If you get a leadoff double, what’s the odds on that run scoring? 50 to 60%? So you can expect .55 run.
- If you get a leadoff single, what’s the odds on that run scoring? 10-20 %? So you can expect .15 run
Add it up it’s 1.6 runs. Multiply that by some unknown variable of the pitcher having “lost it”.
Or put another way — if you get a leadoff double, do you really expect the run to score? You hope so, but it’s 50-50. If you get a leadoff single, do you really expect the run to score? Yet with bases loaded, nobody out, everyone expects all 3 runners to score (and even the guy at the plate).
According to Fangraphs, a team should expect to score 2.28 runs with bases loaded, nobody out. https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/ .
German Outdueled Glasnow Early
German outdueled Glasnow early — and was scintillating through 4 innings; but he tired in the 5th at the 80-something pitch count, coughing up a double and two homers — a 2-run shot to tie the game by Austin Meadows and a solo shot to Ji-Man Choi to put Tampa ahead 3-2. He managed to get out of the inning with a groundout — and because of it would eventually get the win to go 7-1 2.70.
Yanks Got their Machine Guns Out
The Yankees immediately got their machine guns out to have a go at Glasnow — Gary Sanchez hit the roof with a popup that fell for a single; Clint Frazier singled, and after an out, Glasnow asked to be taken out of the game due to an apparent arm injury. In came Emilio Pagan with a 0.90 ERA, who had allowed 1 hit all year (in 10 innings). Miguel Andujar got an infield single to load the bases, and up stepped Gio Urshela.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) May 11, 2019
How Many Runs?
Which begs the question: How many runs should a team get with bases loaded and 1 out, and a relief pitcher pitching with a 0.90 ERA who’s allowed only 2 hits all year… and Gio Urshela up with 2 strikes on him? Answer = at least 2 runs.
And then the Yankee ballpen came in to hold onto that lead. First came Tommy Kahnle who was light’s out in the 6th. Then came Adam Ottavino — who loaded the bases with nobody out, went to a 3-2 pitch on Tommy Pham, but then struck him out and got Choi to hit into a double play on a phenomenal play turned by DJ LeMahieu to save the lead.
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) May 11, 2019
How Many Runs Again?
How many runs should the other team score with bases loaded, nobody out, a 3-2 count on the batter with Adam Ottavino pitching and constantly missing the strike zone — and DJ LeMahieu is your 2nd baseman? Answer = 0.
The End Game
Zack Britton pitched the 8th — allowed the first runner on but then got a double play and pitched a scoreless inning. And then Aroldis Chapman came in for the 9th in the 4-3 game; he went to 3 balls on the first batter, but came back to strike him out, got the first 2 outs, then a single, then a strikeout to end it.
Brett Gardner, batting 9th, went 0-4 and is batting .205. Luke Voit also went hitless but got a walk. LeMahieu came into the game leading the American League in batting average, but went 0-5 to drop to .331.
Cameron Maybin continued to play terrific defense — made a spectacular diving catch in this game — and get hits (1-3 with a run scored).
Here’s the replay of that Sanchez roof-aided single:
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) May 11, 2019