Yankee Prediction for 2025 as Spring Training Ends

March 27, 2025 paperbacklou 2025, Analysis 0
Aaron Judge hitting a 2-run homer to center in the 7th to break the game open.

What a difference Spring Training makes.

For the Yankees this year, it meant:

  • Losing Gerrit Cole for the season to Tommy John surgery.
  • Losing Luis Gil until at least June due to a high-grade lat strain.
  • Losing Clarke Schmidt to start the season due to some shoulder tightness which delayed him in Spring training. He is supposed to be healthy but won’t be available until mid April.
  • The threat of losing Giancarlo Stanton for the regular season due to pain in both his elbows. He has since responded well to treatment and has begun swinging the bat — but won’t be ready for the start of the season.

Anything else?

Not yet.

Still even with all those injuries, the Yankees may have a strong enough team to make the playoffs, and make a World Series run — because of course “12 teams make the playoffs, and in baseball any team can win a short series. So it’s make the playoffs and roll the dice.”

Keys to the Season

As we tweeted after Gil and Cole went out, the Yanks could use the following to happen this year:

  • A great 2nd year by Austin Wells — who was Rookie of Year candidate last season.
  • A Rookie-of-Year kind of season by Jasson Dominguez aka The Martian.
  • Anthony Volpe to hit for 6 months like he did April-May last year.
  • Another monster year from Aaron Judge.
  • Cody Bellinger to do well with the short porch.
  • A great year from Will Warren (who started Spring Training at 3-0 1.54 and finished 4-1 5.09)
  • And all the other things to fall in place: the rest of the starting staff to perform as expected (Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Schmidt when he comes back, and Gil when he returns); the bullpen to do its job (led by new ace Devin Williams and old-ace-turned-setup Luke Weaver); Paul Goldschmidt to do what he did last year (which would be a lot more than Anthony Rizzo has done in the last few years); Jazz Chisholm to perform as expected; and Oswaldo Cabrera to do well in this his 4th season, when the game normally slows down for many hitters.

Roster

  • Catcher: Austin Wells (LHB), J.C. Escarra (LHB) — Austin Wells reminds me of Thurman Munson — the straight-up stance (albeit from the left side vs right), a waiting-to-happen-double-to-the-opposite-field, makes contact and has power, and has become an excellent defensive catcher — controlling the pitching staff expertly (Yankee pitchers often laud him). Wells had a 2.5 WAR last year and is considered by some to be the 2nd best young catcher in the AL behind Adley Rutschman. Escarra is Cinderella story of making the majors at age 29 after many years in the minors and it looks like he can Hit.
  • 1st Base: Paul Goldschmidt (RHB), Ben Rice (LHB — who will also catch and be DH). Goldschmidt is age 37 this year. Lefty bat. Did well the 2nd half of last season. Should give Yanks more than Rizzo did the last 3 years.
  • 2nd Base: Jazz Chisholm (LHB)
  • 3rd Base: Oswaldo Cabrera (SH) — ended up being the 5th best hitter on Yanks last year after Judge, Soto, Gleyber Torres, and Jazz Chisholm. Finished with better numbers than Volpe. He blew thru the minors hitting at every level and is heading into his 4th full season at age 26 — a year and age when the game slows down for many hitters. Can pick it in the field at any position he’s been put at. Wish he was at 1st in the 5th inning of the last game of the World Series. Could do quite well this year.
  • Shortstop: Anthony Volpe (RHB) — have to hope he hits for 6 months the way he did April and May last year, and the playoffs. Did well in World Series.
  • Right Field: Aaron Judge (RHB) — should have won a Gold Glove by now. Did win a Wilson Defensive Player of Year for Rightfield award when they were still giving it out.
  • Centerfield: Cody Bellinger (LHB) — lefty made for Yankee Stadium. Could do real well. Always wanted to be a Yankee.
  • Left Field: Jasson Dominguez (SH) — has such a beautiful swing, with power and contact. Have to hope he challenges for Rookie of Year — would go a long way to Yanks having good season.
  • DH: Giancarlo Stanton (RHB) (whenever he returns — May?), Trent Grisham (LHB), Ben Rice (also catching and 1st base)
  • Infield reserves: Oswald Peraza (RHB), Pablo Reyes (RHB), DJ LeMahieu (RHB)

Starting Pitching

Bullpen

Out to start the year:

  • Ian Hamilton (RH) — out to start year with viral illness; due back in mid April
  • Jake Cousins (RH) — out to start year with forearm strain; due back in May
  • Clayton Beeter (RH) — out to start year with right rotator impingement syndrome.
  • Jonathan Loaisiga (RH) — out to start year still recovering from UCL surgery. Due back in May.
  • Scott Effross (RH) — out to start year with left hamstring strain
  • Chase Hampton (RH) — out to start year still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Due back mid season.
  • JT Brubaker (RH) — out to start year after suffering fractured ribs after being hit by comebacker in Spring Training.
  • Tyler Matzek (LH) — out to start year with moderate strained right oblique.

Prediction

I predict the Yankees will win 95 games this year, make the playoffs, and make a run at the World Series. This differs from last year when I predicted 100 wins, and the prior 2 years when I predicted 102 wins each year. The reason for the optimism but reduced optimism: the loss of Cole

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