Outlook and Prediction for 2026 Yankee Season

March 25, 2026 paperbacklou 2026 0
Aaron Judge hitting his 50th HR in 2025 en route to the MVP Award.

The common analysis — and complaint — by many fans this winter has been that the Yankees are ‘running it back’ for 2026.

And why not?

The Yankees led the American League in Wins last year — tying the Blue Jays with 94 victories. That was more regular season wins than the Dodgers for all the money they spent, who won 93. Only Philly won more games in the majors, with 97.

The Yanks beat Boston in the playoffs, and then lost to Toronto — in a sport where anyone can win a short series.

Even big market teams that almost guarantee themselves a playoff position face 12-1 odds of winning a title; it was recently revealed the Red Sox management feels their odds are really 20-1, overall.

Yanks Are “Stacked” for 2026

Given all that — 2025 was another successful year for NY, and 2026 promises to be better because the Yanks are not just running it back — they have Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt coming back, and a couple of rising stars expected to rise some more.

The Yankees go into the season with young stud Jasson Dominguez — who had an excellent rookie season last year and batted .333 in Spring Training this year — starting the year in AAA because there’s no room for him! Same for young 6’6 stud Spencer Jones, who also killed it in Spring Training after a tremendous year last year in AAA and AA.

That is how ‘stacked’ the Yanks are — and this is how the Yanks stack up for 2026:

Starting Pitching

Phenomenal staff and deep beyond all measure:

  • Max Fried (LH): Ace. Went 19-5 2.86 last year — leading the AL in wins, making the All Star team and finishing 4th in Cy Young voting. Got ripped by Toronto in playoffs but the rumor afterwards was that Toronto was stealing signs.
  • Gerrit Cole (RH): Ace. Missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Is expected back in rotation in May.
  • Carlos Rodon (LH): Ace. Went 18-9 3.09 last year, making the All Star team and finishing 6th in Cy Young voting. Is 33 yrs old this year. Will miss the 1st month of the season recoving from left elbow surgery that was had after the 2025 season ended in October.
  • Cam Schlittler (RH): Young Ace. The 25-year-old righty had an amazing season last year (4-3 2.96) after coming up midway thru year. Pitched a dominant game vs Boston in Wild Card series and a great game vs Toronto in round 2. Was the best Yankee pitcher in the playoffs.

  • Will Warren (RH): Catapulted ahead of Gil with a great Spring training (1.42 ERA in 25 IP). Adjusted his stance on the mound in Spring Training to start on the left side of the rubber. Went 9-8 4.44 last year in a fine rookie year — was one of best rookie starters in American League. Importantly, showed moxie when his back was to the wall; got out of jams. Pitching Ninja is very high on him, calling him a “Michael King Clone.”
  • Luis Gil (RH): Scintilating stuff. Top-of-rotation starter who won Rookie of Year 2 years ago and went 4-1 3.32 last year after missing first 3 months with injury. Starts this year — incredibly — on the AAA roster and expected to re-join the team in early April. Is 28 yrs old this year.
  • Ryan Weathers (RH): Acquired in the winter to provide insurance on the starting staff until Cole and Schmidt return. Had a rough Spring Training with a 11.68 ERA in 12.1 IP.
  • Clarke Schmidt (RH): Due back in August, recovering from left elbow surgery (internal brace) that was in July 2025. Is 30 yrs old this year. Was 9-8 4.44 last year up thru July.
  • Carlos LaGrange (RH): an elite prospect, the 22-year-old, 6’7 righty looked Dominant in Spring Training, until getting lit up in a start in the later part of the schedule. Throws 103 MPH. The Yanks’ #2 prospect.
  • Elmer Rodriguez (RH): the Yank’s #3 overall prospect, the 22-year-old, 6’4 righty was acquired from Boston two years ago for catcher Carlos Narvado.

Bullpen

Tremendous bullpen:

  • David Bednar (RH): one of the elite relievers in baseball, and — best of all for Yankee fans — typically gets no-agita, easy saves. GM Brian Cashman acquired him at trade deadline last July for 3 minor leaguers (Edgleen Perez, Brian Sanchez, and Rafael Flores) — an amazing trade. He becomes a free agent after this season. Is 31 yrs old.
  • Camilo Doval (RH): Scintillating stuff. Scheduled to be the main setup man. Acquired at trade deadline last July and was shaky at times due to control issues, but has looked light’s out so far this Spring. Earliest he can become a free agent is 2028. He is 28 yrs old.
  • Fernando Cruz (RH): was lights-out last year for Yanks with his Nasty splitter. Is 36 yrs old this year. Came up with Cincinnati, making the big club at age 32. Yanks acquired him for Jose Trevino. Earliest he can become a free agent is 2029.
  • Tim Hill (LH): The 6’4 lefty stopper. Wish Aaron Boone would have pitched him in the 9th of game 1 of the World Series against the Dodgers in 2024. Was 4-4 3.09 last year. Is 36 years old this year.
  • Brent Headrick (LH): The 6’6 lefty had a 3.13 ERA in 23 IP last year. Was terrific in between minor injuries. Is 28 yrs old this year.
  • Jake Bird (RH): The 6’3 righty NY picked up from Colorado at trade deadline last year. Stunk for NY but pitched well in Spring Training and made the opening-day roster. Is 30 years old this year.
  • Paul Blackburn (RH): Another reclamation project by Yanks — picked him up off waivers last August after Mets dumped him, and he got bombed in his first appearance, then steadily looked better and better — at times lights’ out. Had some successful years in Oakland as a starter (7-6 4.28 in 2022). Former 1st round pick (#56 by Cubs in 2012) so he has the stuff. He is either great or gets bombed.
  • Ryan Yarbrough (LH): tough reliever/spot starter/opener. Was 3-1 4.36 last year. Is age 34 this year.
  • Cade Winquest (RH): The 25-year-old is a rule-5 draft pick whom Yanks selected from St Louis in the winter — the first Rule-5 draft pick the Yanks have used since Brad Meyers in 2011. Winquest has to spend the year on the Yankee roster for NY to keep him; he throws a mid-90’s fastball and a big breaking ball; he jumps into 17th best prospect in the Yankee organization. To keep Winquest, the Yanks started Luis Gil in the minors this year. According to assistant general manager Michael Fishman, the Yankees had Winquest next on their Draft board after selecting Cam Schlittler in the seventh round of the 2022 draft, but St Louis grabbed him. He can be placed on the injured list but must spend at least 90 days on the active roster.

The Infield

Catcher

  • Austin Wells (LH): Reminds me of Thurman Munson — his batting stance, mustache, double-to-opposite-field-waiting-to-happen hitting approach, and his catching skills — which were not supposed to be good when he was in minors, but have become the best part of his game — his ability to command the pitching staff, call pitches, and throw guys out with a quick release. Had a tremendous World Baseball Classic playing for Dominican Republic this Spring — the only white guy on the team. Is an All Star catcher waiting to happen. Is 26 years old this year. Slashed 21-71-.218 (.275 OBP) last year — a fallback from year before.
  • J.C. Escarra (LH): Boone has said he can be — or even is already — one of the better hitting catchers in the American League. Is 31 years old this year.

1st Base

  • Ben Rice (LH): Rice can HIT and is entered his prime hitting years last year at age 26. But he needs to improve at catching the ball at 1st base — something he worked on heavily this Spring — in fact he did not catch a single game in Spring Training. Slashed 26-65-.255 (.337 OBP) last year with a 2.5 WAR.

  • Paul Goldschmidt (RH): Yanks brought him back for another year at age 38. He slashed 10-45-.274 (.328 OBP) last year — most of that coming in April and May when he was red hot. The multi-time Gold Glover can still pick it at 1st — although he made some errors late last year. Had highest batting average against lefties in AL last year.

2nd Base

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. (LH): Final season before free agency. He has stated he wants to go 50-50 this year — 50 HR’s and 50 Stolen Bases. Slashed 31-80-.242 (.332 OBP) with 31 stolen bases last year.

3rd Base

  • Ryan McMahon (RH): A Graig Nettles-esq defensive 3rd baseman. Slashed 20-53-.214 (.312 OBP) last year — most of it with Colorado. Those are almost identical stats to Volpe’s. Trying a narrower batting stance this year to cut down on strikeouts.

Shortstop

  • Jose Caballero (RH): led majors in Stolen Bases last year. Slashed 5-36-.236 (.339 OBP) last year with Tampa and Yanks. Is 30 yrs old this year.
  • Anthony Volpe (RH): Starts the season rehabbing from left shoulder surgery.Slashed 19-72-.212 (.272 OBP) last year — a disappointment at the plate. But a lot of that came after an in-game injury early in the year that looked devastating at the time — and then fans completely forgot about it and Volpe said nothing about the minor pain in his shoulder he was playing with all year. Can pick it in the field — a Gold Glover. Is 25 years old this year.

The Outfield

Rightfield

  • Aaron Judge (RH): coming off his 3rd MVP Award — slashed 53-114-.331 (.457 OBP) and won the batting title. Led MLB in batting average, OBP, Slugging, OPS, OPS+, walks, Intentional Bases on Balls (36) and you name it. Deserves a Gold Glove — the one award that has eluded him — although he won a Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2019, back when Wilson was giving them out.

Centerfield

  • Trent Grisham (LH): Slashed 34-74-.235 (.348 OBP) last year, including many clutch hits and clutch HR’s. Gold Glove centerfielder. Cashman re-signed him to 1-yr deal at $22 million, saying he feels he has entered into a new level of play in terms of keeping his batting average and OBP up.
  • Spencer Jones (LH): Possible Yankee star of the future; starts the year in AAA. Ripped apart Spring Training pitching — he and The Martian were the Yanks’ best 2 hitters — and they both start the year in AAA. Batted .274 in both AA and AAA last year — a hopeful sign that he can keep his average at a good level in the majors. A big guy (6’6) who plays a good centerfield.

Leftfield

  • Cody Bellinger (LH): Was amazing for NY last year — defensively in left and 1st base, and had an excellent year at the plate (29-98-.272 (.334 OBP) — a lefty hitter made for Yankee Stadium. Grew up a Yankee fan and loves it here. He was re-signed by NY for 5 years and $162M. Is 30 years old this year.
  • Jasson Dominguez (SH): The Martian had an excellent rookie year last year at age 22 — slashing 10-47-.257 (.331 OBP) with 23 stolen bases and only 5 times caught. Made a few errors in left but also made some good plays — as he gets used to left after coming up as centerfielder. Batted .333 this Spring and was one of best Yank batters — yet incredibly starts the year in AAA as there is no room for him.

DH

  • Giancarlo Stanton (RH): Had a great season last year, despite only playing 77 games due to epicondylitis in both elbows. Slashed 24-66-.273 (.350 OBP) in 249 AB’s. Is 36 years old this year.

Bench

  • Randal Grichuk (RH): the Yanks have been reportedly trying to acquire Grichuk for years and finally did so this winter.
  • Amed Rosario (RH): Yanks picked up the former Mets star at the trade deadline last year. He is 31 years old this year and has had a pretty good career with some stellar seasons with the Mets and Cleveland — although he has never made an All Star team. Slashed 6-23-.276 (.309 OBP) with Washington and the Yanks last year — in line with his lifetime 11-63-.273 (.308 OBP) average slashline for 162 games.

The Lineup

Against righty pitchers:

  1. Trent Grisham (LH)
  2. Aaron Judge (RH)
  3. Cody Bellinger (LH)
  4. Ben Rice (LH)
  5. Giancarlo Stanton (RH)
  6. Jazz Chisholm Jr.(LH)
  7. Jose Caballero (RH)/Anthony Volpe (RH)
  8. Ryan McMahon (LH)
  9. Austin Wells (LH)

Against Lefty pitchers:

  1. Paul Goldschmidt (RH) or Ben Rice (LH)
  2. Aaron Judge (RH)
  3. Cody Bellinger (LH)
  4. Giancarlo Stanton (RH)
  5. Amed Rosario (RH)
  6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (LH)
  7. Jose Caballero (RH)/Anthony Volpe (RH)
  8. Randall Grichuk (RH)
  9. Austin Wells (LH)

In the wings (AAA to start season): Jasson Dominguez (SH) and Spencer Jones (LH).

Gone from Last Year

Another measure of how good the Yanks should be this year vs last year (when they led the AL in wins) is who is not here for the fans to boo anymore. Gone are:

amongst others.

Prediction

I don’t see how this team can’t win 102 games. But winning 100 games is hard — and most years even great teams — like the Yanks last year — have a slump at some point and finish with 93 or 94 wins.

Still — this team is Loaded as far as pitching, and the hitting is stacked. So my prediction: 102 wins.

The playoffs? Roll the dice, like every team does every year. Hopefully they can win it this year for Judge.

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