Hal Steinbrenner’s Analysis of Yankees Heading Into 2026

February 14, 2026 paperbacklou 2026, Analysis 0

The Yanks did well in 2025 — tying for the most wins in the American League with 94, beating Boston in the best-of-5 wild card series, but then losing to Toronto in a series where the Blue Jays reportedly were stealing the Yankee signs — enabling them to beat up on Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.

Baseball Probability Theory and the Odds of Winning a Title

Many Yankee fans felt it was an unsuccessful season and BASHED management. But those fans don’t have a clue that:

  1. Baseball is not a playoff sport — its a sport where any team can beat any team in a short series.
  2. Probability theory comes into play in such a sport that has whored itself with 12 teams making the playoffs — elite teams like the Yankees that make the playoffs each year still face 12-1 odds at going all the way (as 12 teams make the playoffs). NY can only reduce those odds to 8-1 if they finish with one of the 2 best records in the American League AND win their division. In 2025, the Yanks tied for the AL lead in wins with 94 — but unfortunately Toronto also won 94 and were in their division, and won the tiebreaker.
  3. The Luxury Tax keeps teams like the Yankees from spending beyond what they do.
  4. The Yankees continue to put a team on the field each year that has a good chance at winning a title and that is all you can hope for.

The Dodgers have unfortunately won 2 straight titles — but that is due in part to Luck — if Isiah-Kiner Falefa takes an extra foot lead at 3rd in extra innings last year, the Dodgers for all the money they spent, would not have won. And the Yanks by the way, had more wins then LA during the regular season (94 to 93).

Yankee Management is Top Notch

Some fans say Hal Steinbrenner is Cheap. This doesn’t make any sense at all as the Yanks have been at the top, or top 3, or at worst top 5 in payroll for 30 straight years. A few years ago the Yanks signed Aaron Judge to a MASSIVE contract. NY gave a $720 M offer to Juan Soto. NY has signed Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Max Fried to huge contracts. They are paying Giancarlo Stanton over $30M a year. They just laid out a huge offer to Cody Bellinger.

At the same time the Yanks have done a phenomenal job with their minor league system — producing players like Cam Schlittler, Clarke Schmidt, Jasson Dominguez, Ben Rice, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, Spencer Jones, George Lombard Jr. and more.

Brian Cashman has also done a tremendous job acquiring players — in recent years the pickups of Trent Grisham, Jose Trevino, Jazz Chisholm, David Bednar, Luis Gil, and Ryan McMahon have been tremendous. And then the Yanks have done a tremendous job getting players at bargain deals and then worked wonders to rekindle their talent, like Luke Weaver, Mike Tauchman, Wandy Peralta, and Tim Hill.

Hal Streinbrenner Speaks

With that as the backdrop — owner Hal Steinbrenner was interviewed at the end of the 2025 season, and here is how he answered the questions that were asked him:

Hal Steinbrenner was asked about what encouraged him & disappointed him about the 2025 Yankees:

When asked what encouraged him and disappointed him about the 2025 Yankees, Hal said: “How well they played together, how incredible the clubhouse was. What was disappointing was the result. I didn’t like that 6-7 week period that we had where we were making mistakes.”

Hal’s thoughts on the salary cap: “We’ll always be among the highest payroll-wise. Always has been, always will be. There are groups of fans out there that come to Spring Training games thinking their team has little chance to make the playoffs.”

Hal identified baserunning as the Yanks’ biggest need for 2026: “The baserunning mistakes were not good. We’ve made a change there coaching-wise. We’re going to expect better results this coming year.”

Hal Steinbrenner was asked if the Dodgers’ success changes his thinking on spending the most money. He answered, “There was nothing low about my payroll and the Mets’ payroll and look where we ended up.”

Hal Steinbrenner was asked about his evaluation about Aaron Boone as manager after the 2025 season. He answered, “He makes overall good decisions on the field. You can’t pin this on Aaron Boone, that’s for sure. This Toronto series was on the players’ shoulders period.”

Hal said it’s “not fair” to think the Yankees made a profit in 2025, and discussed if he has a payroll range for the offseason: “(Cashman) is going to bring me anything and everything. We will see what happens and what presents itself trade-wise and free agent-wise.”

Hal was asked if the Yankee payroll would change for 2026. He answered, “It would it be ideal if it went down, of course. Does that mean it’s going to happen? Of course not. We want to field a team we believe can win a championship.”

Hal was asked if the Yankees want Japanese representation on their roster, and his answer was: “Of course. Baseball is king in Japan. A lot of Japanese fans here in the US would love to see [a player play for the Yankees]. We’ve tried and we’ll continue to try

 

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